007
FXUS65 KPSR 150515
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1015 PM MST Tue Apr 14 2026

.UPDATE...
Updated Aviation

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Weak high pressure will settle over the region through the middle
portion of the week providing warming temperatures and dry
conditions.

- Breezy to locally windy conditions will return for the back half
of the work week with elevated Fire Weather conditions focused
around the Lower Colorado River Valley

- Widespread above normal temperatures are expected by the end of
the weekend and the start of next week with readings warming into
the low to mid 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Positively titled troughing has begun to push out of the Desert
Southwest with the center of this feature now located near the
Colorado/Utah border. However, the trailing axis still extends down
through much of Arizona, keeping negative height anomalies overhead.
This cooler airmass, combined the dry air that moved in behind the
Monday night cold front will provide a very pleasant day across the
region has temperatures are expected to run around 5 degrees below
normal for this point in April. That translates to highs for the
lower deserts from the upper 70s to lower 80s, while higher terrain
readings will be closer to the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Low amplitude ridging will build in the wake of the exiting system,
providing at least a modest warm up for Wednesday with highs
rebounding back to right around normal. Afternoon readings for lower
desert locales will be generally in the middle to upper 80s, with
perhaps a few spots, mainly out in SE California seeing a return to
the 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
By Thursday, a large Pacific weather system is slated to move
southeastward through the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin
leading to height falls over our region and an increasing pressure
gradient. Breezy to locally windy conditions are likely to affect
much of the area starting Thursday afternoon and again on Friday as
the system moves by just to our north. Advisory level winds may also
be possible, particularly across southeast California and the
Colorado River Valley. Near normal temperatures Thursday are
forecast to dip on Friday as the NBM/WPC shows highs back into a 80-
85 degree range.

Stronger ridging is then favored to build across the Western U.S.
over the weekend pushing daytime highs to near 90 degrees Saturday
and then into a 90-95 degree range for Sunday and next Monday. The
weather pattern through at least the first half of next week should
support continued dry weather along with at least one more weather
system passing by to our north creating breezy to windy conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0515Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No major weather concerns will exist through Wednesday night under
clear skies. Confidence is very good that winds in the Phoenix area
will obtain an easterly component overnight before shifting back to
W/SW early afternoon. Winds across SE California will oscillate
generally between S/SE during the day, and W/NW overnight. Extended
periods of nearly calm conditions will be common across the entire
region.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A weather system will exit the region today with only lingering
chances for isolated light showers across the eastern Arizona high
terrain this morning. Weak high pressure and drying conditions will
prevail for the rest of today through Wednesday with overall light
winds. MinRHs will dip to between 15-20% today and 10-15% on
Wednesday as overnight recoveries become poor to fair starting
tonight at 30-50%. Another passing weather system late week will
likely bring increased winds and even lower RHs resulting in the
potential for elevated fire weather conditions on Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM...Kuhlman
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman

NWS Phoenix (PSR) Office