515
FXUS65 KVEF 132200
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
300 PM PDT Mon Apr 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Scattered showers will develop this afternoon and evening, with
  brief heavy rain, small graupel, and thunder possible with
  heaviest showers.

* Calmer conditions resume Tuesday and Wednesday before gusty
  winds and cooler temperatures return late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through early next week.

Closed 500mb low with a cold core of -25C mid-level temps will
move across the region this afternoon and evening, with increasing
showers and a few isolated thunderstorms expected. Early
afternoon satellite imagery depicts broad cumulus fields across
much of the forecast area, but limited vertical growth so far,
however, as cooler air aloft moves in in the coming hours, we
expect a quick increase in shower coverage. Given the cold temps
aloft, some of the stronger showers could produce small graupel
and some rumbles of thunder. Quieter conditions will resume
Tuesday and Wednesday as a transient ridge of high pressure builds
in with temperatures returning to near normal.

The break the weather will be brief however as another shortwave
drops south out of the PacNW and into the Great Basin Thursday.
This feature will stir up the regional winds by Thursday
afternoon and drag a sharp cold front through the area Thursday
evening into Friday morning. Cooler temperatures will follow for
Friday along with gusty north winds, especially along the Colorado
River Valley. High pressure will rebuild over the weekend with
warming temps and dry weather expected.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast
Package...Southwesterly gusts to 20-25kt will continue through
late evening before diminishing overnight. Showers developing over
higher terrain will increase in coverage through this evening,
with terrain obscuration expected. While most activity will
remain anchored to the terrain, erratic gusty winds cannot be
ruled out in the Valley. Additionally, while there is a 25% chance
of showers impacting the terminal, there is also a low chance of
thunder, so an occasional lightning strike will be possible
through mid evening. In the vicinity of showers, SCT-BKN ceilings
around 6- 8kft can be expected, with showers expected to end late
evening. Ceilings improve to around 10-12kft thereafter with light
winds expected late tonight onward.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Showers with embedded
isolated thunderstorms will continue moving eastward across the
area through this evening, with the greatest concentration of
activity across the southern Great Basin and the higher terrain of
southern Nevada and Inyo County. Ceilings around 6-8kft can be
expected with this activity, along with erratic gusty winds and
the occasional lightning strike, with about a 20-30% chance of
occurrence at a given terminal. Southwesterly winds with gusts to
25KT are expected across the Las Vegas Valley and the Lower
Colorado River Valley through this evening, trending more westerly
across the western Mojave, and northwesterly through the Owens
Valley. Areawide, gusts diminish overnight with winds becoming
light by daybreak with bands of mid-level clouds around 10kft
streaming over the area. Light diurnal/variable winds are expected
Tuesday.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Outler
AVIATION...Phillipson

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NWS Las Vegas (VEF) Office